The Syria – Hezbollah Alliance is Falling Apart

Last month on August 14th, Syrian Intelligence Chief, General Houssam Louka requested a meeting directly with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, to which he reportedly declined, signaling distrust between the two parties.

The Syrian regime led by President Bashar Al-Assad, and Hezbollah have been part of a historic alliance, now known as the ‘Axis of Resistance’ with the collective goal of resisting the ‘Zionist entity’, however, it seems that the parties in this axis are falling apart.

Syria’s current political priority remains international reintegration with relative calm in the country post-October 7th, the Syrian army unlike Hezbollah did not conduct any ‘solidarity operations’ within the Axis against ‘Israel’.

After failed negotiations with Turkey, the Arab League, and other international parties that seek to normalize relations with Assad, remaining disengaged from military conflict remains a priority for Assad who is seeking breakthroughs in negotiations.

Bashar’s Card: The Syrian Refugee Issue
The Syrian regime currently holds one card in its favor within the international community, its people, who reside by the millions in neighboring countries such as Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, and all over the Western World as well.

Within Lebanon an estimated 1.5 to 2 million Syrian ‘refugees’ remain inside the country, posing a significant demographic threat to the already weak Lebanese state and economy.

Marwan Abdallah, the international affairs correspondent of the Kataeb party states,” There were around 300 to 400 thousand Syrians in Lebanon before the events in 2011 that led to the Syrian civil war”, meaning that not all Syrians in Lebanon even constitute the legal definition of refugees.

The leverage President Assad has in negotiations for normalization, is dependent on his willingness to repatriate his people, possibly offering security guarantees for the many who oppose his regime, while also winning the blessing of its neighbors who hope to see refugees return.

It is also important to consider the direct social tension between the majority Sunni-Syrian population and their animosity towards the Shi’ite militia, Hezbollah.

Hezbollah constituted the largest pro-Assad militia in the Syrian civil war, providing effective assistance in fighting the Sunni opposition groups from extremists to moderates, simply put anyone who fought Assad, Hezbollah considered an enemy.

This dynamic has led Nasrallah to play into the refugee issue himself by suggesting the Syrians be loaded onto boats and shipped off to Europe, where they will likely offer another burden the European Union.

“Syria and Iran” 

The Syrian regime may place its bets outside of Iran to save itself…

For both Assad and Nasrallah, the Islamic Republic of Iran remains their provider of funds, arms, and militant strength. In the case of Syria, a rift has already grown with Iran.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is rumored to move its assets and headquarters from the Damascus countryside to regions closer to the Southern Lebanese frontier after the killings of several members in Israeli strikes since October 7th.

Tehran also remains alarmed by Damascus’ attempts to re-integrate into the Arab League, with efforts including Syria siding with the UAE on the Gulf Islands dispute, only one year after re-joining the Arab League.

In Syria’s view, the continued allowance of arms activities from Iranian militias within its borders provides enough contribution, even if consulates and buildings are bombed by ‘Israel’ Syria refuses to take the violent approach that they took against Lebanon and Syrian civilians in years past.

The Syrian regime may place its bets outside of Iran to save itself, possibly losing its place on the ‘axis’, favoring international normalization over its relationship with the Islamic Republic and its allies.